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Reliability of Public Private Partnership Projects under Assumptions of Cash Flow Volatility |
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 | Reliability of Public Private Partnership Projects under Assumptions of Cash Flow Volatility
This paper focuses on dynamic financial modelling of recurring cash flow items in PPP projects in operating stage and on risks associated with the volatility of these cash flows. As we concentrate on
so-called government-pays schemes, only cash-outflows are considered, such as operating costs, repairs
and maintenance expenses, and administration costs, whereas the revenue side is considered to
be not at risk.
We show different approaches to modelling the uncertainty of recurring operating expenses and explain
how to interpret the results. Our analysis is based on the mathematical framework of stochastic
processes, which, in finance, are particularly used to describe price series evolutions in capital markets.
We apply them to generate variable trajectories of operating costs and integrate them into a
Monte Carlo-Simulation of the financial model.
Regionalni sastanak zemalja Istočne evrope na temu JPP
Mjesto i datum: Ženeva, 30.11.2009. godine Prezentacija - DOWNLOAD |
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